Delaware :: Ron Paul

Supporting Freedom Through Grassroots Action

Top 25 Ron Paul Groups Alone Raise at least $315,000 in 10 Days

The Ron Paul 2008 campaign is currently having a fundraising contest between the meetup groups. While we don’t know how much money has been raised total, or how much each group has raised, we can take a pretty good guess.

Here is the only data available: http://ronpaul2008.com/meetup/standings.

In order to estimate how much these groups have raised, we need some sort of baseline. And one group is likely to provide it: The South-central Minnesota Ron Paul 2008 Meetup Group, who only have 5 people, the bare minimum to win the 2nd part of the contest, most money raised per group member. Since the minimum is 5 people @ $11,500, we’ll assume that this was their plan, and that is how much money they have raised.

So below you can see the chart with the top 25 meetup group fundraisiers and how far behind they are. But we’ve added a column on the right to estimate the total money raised per group, based on the Owatonn, MN group.
Fundraising Contest Projections

Once you use the baseline and how far behind or in front of other groups Owatonna is, we can estimate that the top 25 groups have raised at least $315,460.

Now it is very likely that they raised far more then that. Owatonna members could have kept their numbers at 5, but gotten a spouse to donate money on their behalf in order to push their donations/member ratio even higher. And I know for a fact that other groups have done this same exact thing.

Total Donations

So how far does the rabbit hole go? We’ve only been able to estimate the top 25 groups, and at present there are 806 TOTAL Ron Paul meetup groups. How much did those groups raise? Estimates here are more unreliable, but if you take a look at the graph below, you can start to form a mental picture.

Chart

Conclusions

If you extend the trendline, it appears that Donations/group start to flatten out around $7500, and if that holds even into the mid hundred meetup groups, the campaign will have raised a staggering amount of cash. Better yet, there are still 3 days left in the contest, and the groups at the top are desperately contacting their membership base urging ever increasing amounts of donations, in an effort to get Ron Paul to their city.

We’d be interested to hear of any other statistical analysis done based on this data.

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August 29, 2007 - Posted by | News Stories, Statistical Analysis

13 Comments »

  1. […] Top 25 Ron Paul Groups Alone Raise at least $315,000 in 10 Days » This Summary is from an article posted at Delaware :: Ron Paul on Wednesday, August 29, 2007 […]

    Pingback by University Update - Linux - Top 25 Ron Paul Groups Alone Raise at least $315,000 in 10 Days | August 29, 2007 | Reply

  2. Go Ron Paul. Also sign the Ron Paul Is Right – Abolish the Federal Reserve Petition at http://www.petitiononline.com/fed/petition.html

    Comment by Ron Holland | August 29, 2007 | Reply

  3. Sorry to break the mood, but one group has 2 supporters- and the maximum for them is $4,600- so I would use that as a starting point.

    Comment by Daniel Stevens | August 29, 2007 | Reply

  4. Your assumption that group Owatonna has raised the 11,500 minimum is the only weak spot in your analysis. We really have no idea that they ahve actually done so, and your assumption injects an an assumed $250,000 (actually more like $200,000) into your figures that we can’t count on.

    I hope you are right, but may be overly optimistic, and because of the flimsiness of your basic assumptions could be completely off. So call it an informed guess, but I think the title “top 25 RP groups raise at least $315,000” is inaccurate.

    Comment by Original Intent | August 29, 2007 | Reply

  5. I thought of this too. But one thing that doesn’t add up is the Howell, MI number. If two members donated how can their total be $10,208? Initially, I was assuming the max contribution per member is $4600 since you can contribute in advance for the main election and get it refunded if he doesn’t win the primary… Does not add up since that would be $9200 max for two members, so I wondered about the 5 member total as well…

    Comment by Jarrod | August 29, 2007 | Reply

  6. “Since the minimum is 5 people @ $11,500, we’ll assume that this was their plan, and that is how much money they have raised.”

    That is a pretty big assumption. If you’re really interested, I would contact that group and ask them to estimate what they donated. That would probably get you to a better number.

    Comment by acsports | August 29, 2007 | Reply

  7. The comments are correct, the 11,500 is only an educated guess.

    As for the Howell, MI group, they could have asked non meetup group members do donate on their behalf and use the MUXXXX donation code. I know of several groups doing the same thing.

    But, it’s just a guess, and we won’t know for sure until the competition is up.

    Comment by ronpauldelaware | August 30, 2007 | Reply

  8. Hey there RPDE! I’m so gratified to find someone else was tracking these stats too. But I must concur, your Howell guess was not the best.

    As an analytical aid, first observe that ever since “$ Behind First Place” was added 8/23 9:44 (or 230944 in ddhhnn format), we have had an easy way of determining the amount raised by tracked groups in-between updates. Whenever a new update is posted, you can find the groups which have raised zero in the interim, because they will all have the same maximal increase in their “$ Behind First Place”. That increase can be reliably taken as identical to the dollar increase in first place.

    Next, we can posit a question which is not hypothetical but is mathematically answerable: what is the MINIMUM which can be proven to have been raised, based on data points collected? (I cannot claim to have collected all data points posted, but I did obtain the following timestamps: 230944 241000 240315 251145 270800 271350 280952 291015 291920 300910. Your table is the 291015 timestamp.) The minimum can be determined by arbitrarily assuming that 25th place at 230944 (5 days in) was tied for $0 (which assumption will be corrected later). In this case the 35 groups featured in these data points have raised a MINIMUM total of $119,945 over 12 days. ($87,028 can be known to have been raised in the last 7 days, and the other $32,917 is the minimum necessary to have accompanied it over all 12 days to give the results posted.) I will spare you the boring spreadsheet, but suffice to say that the current leader (Philadelphia) has demonstrably raised $13,647 more than 25th place had raised one week ago, or 5 days in (which we took to be $0).

    Now, as for estimating the actual total for 25th place at 5 days in. Of course your assumption is recognizably high, shown simply by looking at the graph and trying to draw the horizontal asymptote. As you just described, this appears to flatten around $7,500, but an ordinary graph would flatten at $0, which suggests your starting point and all resultant estimates are too high by that estimate of $7,500. (At this point it would be appropriate to remind all readers that overzealously high early estimates do not help our cause. Instead, speak softly and carry a big meetup group to the polls.)

    A much more reliable educated guess could be based on the fact that three groups were locked in a three-way tie over several data points (39, 321, and 644, from 241000 to 271350). Their tying number must be a relatively common amount. Further, it must be placed in such a way that the total which can be known to have been raised in the last 7 days is comparable to the remaining accompaniment, most but not all of which will have come in the first 5 days. Based on these two considerations, $1,000 is the most likely figure ($2,300 is clearly too high). Since the three-way tie occurred at $225 above the benchmark (25th place 5 days in), this educated guess would suggest that 25th place was at $775 at that time. (Your estimate would have had it at $8,106, and the actual gap of $7,331 accords well with the $7,500 estimated gap already noticed.) This means that we can add 35 x $775 to the total. We had $87,028 proven, and the accompaniment grows from $32,917 to a quite reasonable $60,042, so we can safely say that:

    THE TOP 35 GROUPS HAVE PROBABLY RAISED $147,070 IN 12 DAYS.

    What the other 750+ groups have raised is an interesting question which requires more analysis than this margin. A quick and arbitrary estimate would be about 15-25% of the total if each group had raised their maximum, which is 25th place currently or apparently $1,560. This is around two to three hundred thousand. All in all, a half-million for a half-month from meetup groups alone is very competitive and bodes well for 3Q07 standings!

    Have you donated yet? paul08.org

    Comment by John J. Bulten | August 30, 2007 | Reply

  9. Interesting analysis John, and I too am glad to see someone looking into this.

    I did try and get in touch with the two smaller meetup groups in the hopes of determining a starting point, but their organizer did not know how much they had donated, so I’m still stuck at guessing. I’ll be eagerly awaiting the results tonight @ midnight!

    Comment by ronpauldelaware | August 31, 2007 | Reply

  10. Everyone is donating $100 on the 5th of November. (The new slogan for that day):

    Year 1605 (England)

    Remember, remember the fifth of November,
    Gunpowder, treason and plot,
    I see no reason why gunpowder treason,
    Should ever be forgot.

    Year 2007 (America)

    Remember, remember the fifth of November,
    Ron Paul, and the money he got,
    I see no reason my government’s treason,
    Should ever be forgot.

    Credit given:
    http://ronpaulrevolution-wallace.blogspot.com/

    Comment by 5th of November | October 18, 2007 | Reply

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